With low population growth tonnage will be a challenge
This is the third of our trends that we have published for 2026. Our SKUFood trends are different. We focus on the entire value chain and look for insights to help you as you navigate through another year in this challenging industry. There are several sources for trends to help you understand what is happening with consumers. They are important and we encourage you to consider how they impact your target market and your products.
In recent years the Canadian population has been growing, primarily through immigration, international students and other people coming into Canada to work or to seek asylum. Government projections state this will slow down or even decline. Food and beverage sales are linked to population changes. Although consumers can change the mix in their basket, usually more people translates into higher sales. With low to no population growth, suppliers and retailers will need to take consumers from their competition to demonstrate growth. Trade spend and other investments need to focus on this strategy.
We have benefitted from population growth
As we came out of the pandemic, Canadian population grew by over 2% each year. Food and beverage businesses have benefitted from this growth. Since Q1 2020, Canadian population has increased by 3,647,377 people. This 9.9% increase over 5 years has generated considerable sales dollars in the Canadian food and beverage industry. In 2023 Statistics Canada estimated the average household was spending $8,659 per year on food at food stores. Using the average household size of 2.4 people, this translates into each person spending $3,607 per year at food stores.
From Q1 2020 to Q4 2025 the population increase has added $13,156,088,839 (3,647,377 x $3,607) to the Canadian grocery industry. This does include the increase for inflation that were in the average annual expenditures. Everyone in the value chain has benefitted from the sales that have been generated through population growth. More people need more food and beverage.
It is important to note these population figures do not include people in Canada temporarily for work or to be a student.
With challenges to infrastructure and probably some public sentiment, policy appears to be shifting to slow down immigration. The federal government has indicated they will reduce the numbers for temporary residents to 5% of the total population by end of 2027 and permanent resident admissions will be 380,000 per year. These changes in policy will reduce the growth we have experienced. Some people are predicting growth will be close to 0. If this happens, food producers and processors will find it more challenging to generate increases in sales from growth in the number of units they are selling.
Retailers will be very focused on tonnage growth and how it is changing within categories. We often say a producer or processor’s route to the next shelf is paved by their performance on the current shelf. In other words, if you can demonstrate to retailers you are growing tonnage in this new environment, they will be interested in what you are doing.
Measure your baseline
Every producer and processor should understand their baseline sales to each customer. How much are you selling in a regular week when you are not on promotion? If you can prove you are increasing this number, in a period of low to no population growth, you will get more opportunities and improve your relationships with your customers.
Suppliers should be talking to retailers now about expectations. Retailers need to deliver sales increases to keep shareholders happy. When inflation is stripped out there will be some winners and losers. There will also be considerably more pressure to deliver tonnage increases.
Manage your trade spend
It will be more important than ever to measure the results when you invest in trade spend. Which tactics deliver results and which ones cost you too much money?
There is no doubt retailers will push for more trade spend to drive tonnage. Most of the investment is from suppliers and they can make the argument if you can get people to buy more, they will consume more. Good arguments when it is someone else’s money.
Ask for sales results during promotions to determine if you generate the sales you forecast. Measure the return on the investment and be strategic about when you do and do not participate.
We will continue each week with our 2026 trends. As always, we appreciate your feedback and comments as they help us understand what is important to you and your business.
If you will be at the Future of Food event in Ottawa February 10 or the CFIN event the following day let me know. I look forward to seeing a lot of people in the industry those two days.
Peter
SKUFood Recipes for Success Podcast
In this episode of SKUFood Recipes for Success, we sit down with Jake Karls, the unapologetically authentic and refreshingly relatable Co-founder & Chief Rainmaker of Mid-Day Squares, the good-for-you chocolate brand that went from a Montreal condo kitchen to tens of millions of bars sold across thousands of retail stores.
Jake brings a no-BS approach to brand building. For him, the real differentiator isn’t just product innovation—it’s human connection, consistent storytelling, and having the courage to be fully yourself in a crowded category. As Mid-Day Squares scaled from idea to retail reality, Jake played a pivotal role in building community first, leveraging radical transparency, and turning everyday snackers into loyal superfans.
Widely recognized as a rising star in business, Jake has been a finalist for EY’s Entrepreneur of the Year, landed on Forbes 30 Under 30 (Food & Beverage, 2023), and has become a familiar voice in media across North America.
In our conversation, Jake takes us through the creative and chaotic early days of the brand, how daily content evolved into a trust-building machine, and why vulnerability became their most powerful marketing strategy. We explore how the founders navigated rapid growth without compromising authenticity, how they intentionally built a movement rooted in empowerment and inclusivity, and what their journey reveals about the future of food brands that resonate on a human level.
This episode offers an inside look at how Mid-Day Squares disrupted an entire category simply by showing up as themselves.
If you would like to be a guest send us a note. We are always working on the upcoming episodes.
Leveraging the opportunity for Canadian Products
We are excited to deliver this program with Food & Beverage Manitoba. So many opportunities for food businesses.
Food & Beverage Manitoba is hosting a targeted 4-part series with Peter Chapman of SKUFood to help processors navigate rapid shifts in the Canadian market. With rising trade uncertainty and growing demand for Canadian-made products, success now depends on clearly communicating your value, aligning with retailers, and building a strong sales and marketing foundation.
This series equips food and beverage companies—whether new to retail or expanding their reach—with practical tools to get products onto shelves and into carts. Three sessions are virtual, and the final full-day session is in person at FABMb. Attendance at all four sessions is required.
Jan 15 – Opportunities with Consumers (Virtual 9am-12pm)
Jan 22 – Alignment with Retailers (Virtual 9am-12pm)
Jan 29 – Developing the Retail Plan (Virtual 9am-12pm)
Feb 5 – Create a Quality Presentation (In person at FABMb, virtual option available)
Members Price all 4 sessions: $400.00 plus GST
Non-Member price all 4 sessions: $800.00 plus GST
New packaging needs to be in the market
Consumers should be noticing changes in labelling that call out products that are high in saturated fats, sugars or sodium. Processors have had a few years to implement the changes and we are now at the point where the change is mandatory.
It can impact sales as consumers become more educated about products and their ingredients. Suppliers should take an objective look at the category now to see how their packaging looks in a new world for many sets within the grocery stores.
Where is Peter speaking?
With the focus on Canadian food and beverage we wanted to share a program we have developed with Alain Bosse, the Kilted Chef. We partner to share insights about Canadian food and beverage at conferences and events. We talk about where products come from, share insights about some hidden gems and of course Chef Alain has great tips for using the products at home. This is designed to be entertaining and engaging. Not just for food industry audiences, it works for everyone.
I do have travel coming up to Toronto and Fredericton so if you want to connect or have an event in any of these locations give me a call or send me an email.