The seasons are shifting

The seasons are shifting

Have you planned for seasonal shifts in volume?

We have some friends coming for the long weekend, so we had a list of things we needed to get so we are ready to feed and entertain them. Although our children are past school age, I know it is back to school week. A bit odd this year with labour day being late some schools start this week and some next week after the long weekend.

Our first stop last night was Costco. With a crowd of 9 the big sizes and value make sense. Big mistake to go to Costco the night before school starts. It was mayhem. Full carts and a long line up to check out.

Our second stop was Walmart for a couple of general merchandise items we needed. Busy but not as busy as Costco. More focus on school supplies and almost all families. We used self check out where the line moved quite quickly.

Our third stop was Superstore. It was getting later, but the drop off in shoppers was noticeable. They do have school supplies but there were not many people in this section. Some food shoppers but not too many full carts. Very few families in this store.

The last stop was Canadian Tire for a new lawn mower blade (I hit a rock) and it was getting close to closing time so not many people. No real back to school offering except for university students in apartments.

The tour through different retail formats got me thinking about the shift from summer to back to school and the significant impact it can have on your business. A lot changes for consumers when we make the change from summer to fall.

Priorities change

As we move into fall consumers are focused on different things. If they have school age children it is money going to clothes and school supplies. They only have so much income. With gas costing more and a big bill for back to school they will be looking to save somewhere. The grocery store is an obvious choice. They will probably trade down in categories, shift to less expensive private label, buy fewer expensive fresh foods and be looking for specials but not stocking up to keep the bill down.

If your product can deliver a lower retail price, this is the time to promote it. Items under $5.00 sell more right now. If you are producing a private label product that has an advantage in the category it should be promoted and well merchandised right now.

Household dynamics change

The change from summer to fall brings more structure and organized activities. This can translate into looking for quick, easy meals that can be prepared in less than 20 minutes. Supper that is prepared and consumed between the end of the working day and a dance practice or hockey game. Gone are the lazy days of summer where there was time and a longer evening to make a meal and eat with the family together.

Products that can deliver that quick meal that everyone likes sell more.

Eating habits change

What people eat has a significant impact on what they buy. The shift from summer to fall is one of the most dramatic changes to buying habits. Although September is a great month where we live, the shorter evenings and fall harvest influence our meals.

If you have an item that is more suitable to the oven/air fryer or inside cooking you should be trying to get more space and some promotion activity. Don’t wait for customers to ask for it!

Impact on your business…change in volume

Some items increase in volume and others decrease. You need to understand your item and your category so you can prepare for these changes as we shift from one season to another. If you have not done anything by now you are too late for this one. Be more prepared for the next one.

If your item increases in sales with the shift from summer to fall you should have more inventory in the stores to capitalize on the increased demand. Your product needs to be out there when people want it. If it does increase and you don’t have product in the stores you will be out of stock. These are lost opportunities and your customer will be frustrated.

You should also consider more inventory in your own facility. Depending on shelf life, you can have extra stock on hand. Prepare for some last minute orders and keep your customers happy when you can fill them.

If your volume decreases you need to pull back and keep the right amount out there. You need to continue to demonstrate sell thru and avoid shrink because of best before dates.

Be proactive with your customers

Retailers are managing thousands of SKUS. If you know or suspect there will be a shift in volume for your item build the plan to either take advantage of the increased volume or manage the decrease. All of this should be part of the plan you have with each customer.

I do have travel coming up to Toronto, Guelph, Winnipeg and Vancouver so if you want to connect or have an event in any of these locations give me a call or send me an email.

Peter

SKUFood Recipes for Success Podcast

In this episode of SKUFood Recipes for Success, we explore how a new generation of brands is rethinking hydration through ingredient integrity, format innovation, and clear positioning. As the electrolyte category continues to evolve, standing out requires more than functionality, it demands a differentiated product and a brand consumers can trust.

We dive into what it takes to build a real ingredient electrolyte product, from sourcing directly with farmers to formulation and creating a clean label offering without added sugars, dyes, or artificial flavours. This conversation also unpacks the strategic decision to innovate beyond traditional formats, introducing a freezer based approach that challenges how and where consumers engage with hydration. By combining fruit first ingredients with functional electrolytes, this model highlights how format can become a powerful lever for differentiation in a crowded market, while navigating the real trials and tribulations of building a business from the ground up.

We also explore how brands can scale while staying true to their core product and positioning, particularly outside of traditional beverage aisles. From maintaining quality and consistency to making thoughtful, detail driven decisions at every stage of growth, this episode highlights the discipline required to build something new in an emerging format. It’s a look at how strong foundations and attention to detail can support long term success in a highly competitive category.

If you would like to be a guest send us a note. We are always working on the upcoming episodes.

Food labelling questioned on products from India

Maintaining the integrity of food labelling is a challenge. There are tens of thousands of SKUS produced in Canada and coming into the country. Consumers need confidence in the proper identification of ingredients and other product attributes. For some people this can be the difference between life and death.

It is encouraging to see CFIA being diligent and aware of these issues. We often say Canada is one of the most challenging places to produce food and beverage. We have a lot of oversight. This is important and the right decision but it can be a challenge to compete against businesses that are not playing by the same rules. It is also encouraging to see the regulator in India dealing with the issue, hopefully before it leaves the country. They would not do French/English for many other markets.

Government of Canada Strategic Response Fund

From the website:

With the focus on Canadian food and beverage we wanted to share a program we have developed with Alain Bosse, the Kilted Chef. We partner to share insights about Canadian food and beverage at conferences and events. We talk about where products come from, share insights about some hidden gems and of course Chef Alain has great tips for using the products at home. This is designed to be entertaining and engaging. Not just for food industry audiences, it works for everyone.